Zen and the art of competency measurement

It's not what you know that makes you an effective worker. It's how you understand your role that makes you effective.
In other words, says Professor Jorgen Sandberg, competence is not attribute- based, but understanding based.
Our understanding of what our work is would then inform our subsequent actions in that particular role.
The problem, Prof Sandberg says, in measuring competency via attributes is that it does not necessarily reflect the in-work performance of the individual.
In other words, just 'cos someone has skills doesn't mean he would use them effectively.
Don't look at competence from the outside, exhorts Prof Sandberg, look at it from the "inside". Don't divorce the attributes of a worker from the worker himself.
Of course, attributes are necessary -- a doctor still needs to study medicine (and pass his exams!) to be a doctor. The question here is: "What makes one doctor better in his job than another doctor in his job?"
And here's the bad news: There is no one single answer to that.
Thoughts?

Associate Professor Leesa Wheelahan's Friday keynote presentation

Associate Professor Leesa Wheelahan from the University of Melbourne's L.H. Martin Institute spoke on 'The link between post-compulsory education and the labour market: revitalising the vocational in flows of learning and labour.' While Leesa emphasised she remains a 'critical friend' of Australia's Vocational Education and Training(VET)sector, she nevertheless is critical of its current structures and suggested ways in which it could be changed to reflect better outcomes for individuals and enterprises. She considers that there are several 'intractable' challenges in the relationship between the Australian labour market and VET training: skill shortages, a flexible but unresponsive system in relation to the creation of forward thinking training programs, a loose fit between qualifications and jobs, a failure of most VET graduates to progress in their jobs, and a contradiction between a CBT training system that only teaches defined skill sets while concurrently encouraging innovatory practices. While these circumstances create a set of problems for training policy and practice, there are also presented internal challenges within the sector itself. Key amongst these is the weak link between school and work and the failure if the job market to facilitate flexible movement within and across and individual's life career choices. Part of this may be due to a lack of 'intermediate' qualifications between low and high skilled occupations and related qualifications. This 'gap' can hamper career progression from lower to higher levels. A solution from the VET sector may be a stronger emphasis on the Diploma qualification as a 'crossover qualification' between the two as it enables progression to higher education programs and its association with professional careers. Leesa calls for a more responsive VET sector with both liberal (for example, Australia and Singapore) and coordinated (for example, the Scandinavian countries) economies, though holds out better hope for the latter because of their more closely integrated social, economic and educational systems. A key to facilitating vocational education change may be replacing the current CBT curriculum conceptual framework with a capability framework that relies less on CBT's atomised approach to skills training for jobs and more on developing individual skills within contextualised and community-based workplace learning environments. Such an approach would facilitate a focus on the relationship between work and education and not just education. It would also focus on the way labour is deployed at work while establishing minimum standards of knowledge, skills and attributes. Local accreditation by experts and key stakeholders would also be possible within a national assessment framework, to ensure quality. Associate Professor Whelahan's address was warmly received and provoked much discussion during and after her presentation.

Adult learners don't want to go to school, really

So are we ready for a national model for continuing education and training?
Professor Stephen Billett certainly thinks we are.
Singapore's great challenge for CET is that we are playing catchup in terms of training our adult workforce, especially for the 40+ age group.
Unlike initial preparatory training, which comes under the purview of MOE, CET has been supported by MOM, mainly through initiatives by WDA and IAL.
We can do more, says Prof Billett.
He envisions a national CET model, which marries MOE and MOM, where WDA and IAL focuses on providing dedicated CET centres, and where grassroots organisations, through People's Association and community centres, help adult learners pull themselves up by their bootstraps.
The key, he says of adult learners, is not to treat them as students, but to engage them through learning dialogues.
CET should be more than just training programmes, it is about a learning process.
In other words, adult learners don't want to go back to school, they simply want to learn.
While it may be easy to quantify CET simply by administrating courses and, as Prof Billett puts it, counting bums on seats, the challenge is for us to go beyond the orthodoxy, to focus on helping those who want to learn, learn.
And maybe merge a couple of ministries while we're at it, eh?
Thoughts?

Degrees of separation

Ever met a taxi driver who has a degree? If your answer to that is yes, then Professor Alan Felstead's lecture would have resonated.
His quantitative research into skills utilisation in the UK has thrown up a host of interesting conclusions.
He found that the UK government has had great success in equipping people with degrees, but has not been so successful in providing jobs that required said degrees.
He also found that over the years, people feel that they have had to work harder, and have less control over what they get to do in their jobs.
On the plus side, more people have had more training over the years, although this training seems to be overly concentrated on a smaller, younger, more prominent group.
Worryingly, his data shows that as workers get older, training slows down, which is a challenge for the adult continuing education sector.
While all his data has been culled from UK sources, IAL has carried out its own survey in skills utilisation in Singapore, so it would be interesting to see how similar (or different) the results may be.
But even without looking at these results, I find Prof Felstead's results distressingly familiar to my experiences in Singapore.
Disagree? Have you been reading our newspaper headlines recently?
Thoughts?

Be capable, not just competent

Vocational education and training focuses too much on meeting required roles and tasks and too little on developing the individual.
And that is a big problem, says Professor Leesa Wheelahan. It is a big problem because many students don't end up in jobs that they train for.
It is a big problem because in liberal economies like Australia and Singapore, vocational education and training is often treated like a lesser cousin to higher education.
It is a big problem because by focusing on rote learning and following formulae, students are not empowered to go beyond what they are "qualified" to do.
In other words, a plumber will be a plumber will be a plumber forevermore.
If someone wants to be a plumber, then it's all fine and good, but what if he wants something else? How has he been equipped to do so?
All these questions are extremely relevant to Singapore. Just think about our ITE system. Can you imagine an ITE graduate managing an NUS grad? Now ask yourself, why not?
Prof Wheelahan's passionate argument is to move away from competency-based training and into capability training. Focus on using skills as a lens to view the world, not just on applying said skills. Teach math, she says, not just formulae.
This, she argues, would help not just graduating students, but adult learners, in their transitions from one job to another, from an occupation to the next.
Strong words, bold vision.
Now, how do we do it?
Thoughts?

Mr Eric Lee, Facilitating learning in mid-career transitions

Mr Eric Lee is the Principal Research Manager in the Research Division of the Institute for Adult Learning. Eric reported on some interesting outcomes from his recently completed Masters dissertation on facilitating learning in mid-career transitions. In an age of rapid economic and social globalisation, particularly within local contexts of job redefinition and redundancy, many workers are often forced to shift into new roles, which is often threatening. Eric has developed a three phase facilitation process that hopes to reduce the potential anxieties faced by transitees. He calls this 'Ready (functional), Realise (advanced), Respond (professional).' The aim of the process is to re-form, support and build transitees' new feelings of workplace self-efficacy. In this way workers should feel more comfortable and proficient in their new surroundings. Eric presented a wide-range of transitee case-studies to support elements of his model. In many ways, Eric's work re-emphasises IAL's role to conduct research that is theoretically and methodologically sound, is based on Singaporean labour market needs, and produces pragmatic outcomes of value to individual workers.

Keynote from Professor Diana Lourillard

Professor Laurillard spoke forcefully on the need for educators to engage in learning about the possibilities of new e-learning technologies and applying them creatively in collaboration with learners. Central to her presentation on 'New design tools for teachers as innovators in e-learning' was the encouragement of learners to be self-directed but not without careful and organised guidance by an experienced educator in the skills demanded for independent inquiry and learning. She argued that setting up such programmes may require lengthy planning and construction but there are considerable time-saving rewards after two years. Professor Laurillard also previewed some excellent curriculum and lesson planning technologies to enable collaborative learning between educators.

Learner, learning; teacher, teaching; teacher, learning?

We have one big assumption when it comes to e-learning.
Just because the resources are available, it doesn't necessarily mean that students know how to use them.
Of course, Wikipedia and other web-based resources have made online knowledge acquisition much easier, but telling students to simply "google it" is like letting a bunch of kids loose in a candy store.
And you can be sure that it'll end in tears.
"Learners need to learn how to learn," says Prof Diana Laurillard in her keynote address at the ALS.
In other words, you must be able to structure e-learning and set proper goals for it -- that is, we need to have a proper pedagogical framework.
In the rest of her speech, Prof Laurillard sketches out her argument for this framework, concluding the teachers must function more like scientists, especially in collaboration arena.
Actually, there is another key assumption we have about teachers.
We believe all teachers know how to use the latest technology. After all, they're teachers, right?
Wrong.
Prof Laurillard stressed that we must not be simply driven by technology and lose sight of the goal of educating our students. To do so, teachers must know about developments in e-learning, so that we won't get dazzled by the latest toys. The key therefore, is to recognise that technology is an enabler, and not the end goal in itself.
As NTU'S Associate Professor Daniel Tan puts it, we must focus on how these tools benefit the students.
Consistently during the address, and in the panel discussion afterwards, the point that kept coming up is that teachers must receive training to harness technology.
And that they must be given the time to do so.
A footnote, however, that the panellists brought up, is that the teachers themselves need to be receptive to being taught.
Attitude, in the end, is key, they say.
Thoughts?

Mr Peter Schwartz, Keynote Speaker

Mr Peter Schwartz,Senior Vice-President, Global Government Relations and Strategic Planning, Salesforce.com, gave an inspiring address to set the scene for ALS12. While complimenting Singapore on it dynamism and capacity to meet tha challenges of globalisation and economic sustainability, he warned that no country or individual can afford to be complacent about the future and its unpredictability. Central to the challenge, he argued, is a requirement for individuals to remain open to change and reskill through continuous learning. He used the example of himself as having, at age 65, to reinvent himself several times over his lifetime to undertake roles and occupations that did not exist even a few years before. He urged all nations to face the current global economic challenges through cooperation rather than conflict and was optimistic about the future. Mr Schwartz received warm applause for the insights he provided to the ALS12 delegates.

Learning good, discovery better

Everything Mr Peter Schwartz knows, he learnt after he graduated from school.
"I studied as an aeronautical engineer, with a smattering of biology," he says, noting that now, advancements in science and technology have progressed so far and so fast that he has had to re-learn everything.
And that is probably our new reality today.
So, how?
The metaphor that Peter used at the start of his keynote address today at the ALS sums up our response perfectly.
"When white-water rafting, the key to staying in control is to move a little faster than the water."
In other words, stay ahead of the curve, else you're going to get swept away.
And that really would be where adult education comes in -- which I reckon, we'd be talking about a lot more over this two days.
Peter did a great job of weaving various thematic threads of what is happening in the world today to project possible views of the future.
But where are we in all this?
Peter brought up opportunities for the future in science, in technology, in medicine, in education, but all his examples were from other countries.
Yes, Singapore is a world leader in human capital development, and we have one of the highest per capita incomes of the world, but listening to his speech, it seems to me that discovery is the key to surviving the future.
What have Singaporeans discovered recently?
Any thoughts?

T-shaped, pi-shaped, MBS-shaped?

It's not a good sign when things go pear-shaped.
But what about if things go T-shaped?
Pretty good, according to Minister of State for Manpower and National Development Tan Chuan Jin.
The T-shaped individual is one who combines a deep skillset with a flexible mindset brought about by a broad big-picture understanding.
And that is the key to advancement in our fast-paced rapidly changing world. But as CSC's Mr Aaron Maniam says, just a T may not be enough. Individuals need to have a deep insight into more than just one field of expertise, he says. In other words, pi-shaped (with two "legs" of knowledge rather than just one) may very well be the standard, moving forward.
In fact, he joked, alluding to the architectural design of the iconic Marina Bay Sands resort, we may have to aim towards getting an MBS-shape in the future!
As long as things don't go pear-shaped in the process, I say.
Thoughts?

Question for all plenary members #1

For all plenary members: What would be the role of IAL and WDA and in particular, quality assurance to meet the raising complexity of needs in Adult Learning?

Question from Prof. Jörgan Sandberg's keynote #7

It seems that we are to recognise that competency is very contextual, and how individuals interpret those contexts and act on them. Therefore, this is becoming more capability-based, rather than narrowly-defined tasks that are competency-based. Such contextual interpretation capability should start from school education, not just in adult education. Would this summarise the keynote?

Question from Prof. Jörgan Sandberg's keynote #6

What can the adult learning community do more or less of to seek new frontiers in learning and work?

Question from Prof. Jörgan Sandberg's keynote #5

Dr. Helen Bound made the remark that we should move away from the current understanding and practice of CET. Do you think policy makers and policy implementers are listening?

Question from Prof. Jörgan Sandberg's keynote #4

Any advice on how we can speed up the partnerships & marriages that we have been talking about?

Question from Prof. Jörgan Sandberg's keynote #3

How can WDA and learning institutions work with organisations to spur competence renewal?

Question from Prof. Jörgan Sandberg's keynote #2

If understanding from users are important in the meaning of competence, how can we reconcile differing understanding ESP from supervisors & workers?

Question from Prof. Jörgan Sandberg's keynote #1

Defining competence from the inside will make training authentic. How and who assesses competence?

Question from Prof. Stephen Billett's keynote #12

Under the CEL model, would the quality evaluation of the courses be more effectively evaluated via a centralised body/approach or via decentralised bodies, e.g. industries stakeholders?

Question from Prof. Stephen Billett's keynote #11

Can the CEL model apply in Australia? How and where,and what would be the challenges?

Question from Prof. Stephen Billett's keynote #10

How do you motivate experienced workers to value their potential contribution as informal workplace educators in light of their job insecurities and resource constraints?

Question from Prof. Stephen Billett's keynote #9

In a workplace with a mixture of senior and young workers, there are differences in the way they learn. How can a division or an organization manage this?

Question from Prof. Stephen Billett's keynote #8

Can you further elaborate on how having an independent body managing and offering WSQ qualifications can benefit workplace-based provisions?

Question from Prof. Stephen Billett's keynote #7

How can we involve the relevant industry partners to be part of the team with CET educators that can provide guided learning at workplace on top of their daily responsibilities?

Question from Prof. Stephen Billett's keynote #6

How do you encourage and convince practitioners to take up WSQ courses and believe in the importance of CET?

Question from Prof. Stephen Billett's keynote #5

Would you be able to comment on a model for training foreign workers?

Question from Prof. Stephen Billett's keynote #4

South Korea went very quickly, comprehensively and massively into e-learning. Recently they've made a U-turn and has opted for more traditional pedagogical approaches. Can you comment?

Question from Prof. Stephen Billett's keynote #3

Your emphasis on CEL is certainly noble & desired. Here lies the importance of mentors & coaches at work. However time is always a big challenge for Reporting Officers (ROs) to guide, coach, mentor & dedicate time for mentees, interns & apprentice. What is your advice?

Question from Prof. Stephen Billett's keynote #2

With the march towards the CEL model, how can CET centres keep learning individualised,holistic and relevant and veer away from being too generic and static? Besides hoping for MOM to marry MOE,should learning institutions marry companies to provide more workplace-based learning?

Question from Prof. Stephen Billett's keynote #1

A significant feature of WSQ is bite sized and modular training after which learners are expected to be "competent". Is this approach still relevant?

Question from Prof. Alan Felstead's keynote #9

Would the current view and practice of assessment - summative and for accountability purposes - need to be changed in tandem with your proposed changes to the CET system?

Question from Prof. Alan Felstead's keynote #8

Why do you think the trend of increasing high strain jobs is bottoming out in UK? Has training anything to do with it?

Question from Prof. Alan Felstead's keynote #7

You mentioned that benefits and quality of training declines with age. Is this even more acute for older low wage workers?

Question from Prof. Alan Felstead's keynote #6

Regarding trends at work, how does the apparent reduction in discretion while performing at work square with the apparent increase in demand for innovation?

Question from Prof. Alan Felstead's keynote #5

We talked about demand and supply. Has the improvement in skill translated to better workers, which in turn translates to improved work outcome?

Question from Prof. Alan Felstead's keynote #4

Can we conclude from your research that it is crucial for curriculum developers to keep track of changing work needs so that they can develop & update curriculum regularly to keep it recent and relevant? My thoughts are that curriculum developers starting from tertiary levels should be attached to the relevant industries on a regular basis (at least for a month) a feel of the latest needs of workers. What are your thoughts?

Question from Prof. Alan Felstead's keynote #3

The 10 skills identified appears to be 20th century skills. Have these skills become obsolete as a result of change? In the 21st century where uncertainty and change is the norm, what new skills have you identified?

Question from Prof. Alan Felstead's keynote #2

As university graduates are becoming the norm these days, how can we transform these future job seekers from being academic-smart to skills-smart to address both the mismatch in the supply and demand of labour and mismanagement of talent? Are university qualifications still relevant when one becomes over-qualified for most jobs that are available?

Question from Prof. Alan Felstead's keynote #1

Is there a particular reason for using the results in 1997, 2001 and 2006 in your studies? It would seem that recession years will affect results differently

Question from Prof. Leesa Wheelahan's keynote #12

Curriculum developers often turn to resources e.g. books etc instead of being exposed to what industry needs. My thoughts are that they should be attached to the relevant industries on a regular basis to get a feel of the latest needs of workers. What are your thoughts on that?

Question from Prof. Leesa Wheelahan's keynote #11

How do u think the Australian competency model is similar or different to the Singapore model?

Question from Prof. Leesa Wheelahan's keynote #10

The Germans have a dual education system for vocational training where students are employed as apprentices in companies. They then attend lessons both at the companies and at the vocational schools. May I have your view on this system?

Question from Prof. Leesa Wheelahan's keynote #9

How do we prevent 9000 paged competencies killing the joy of learning in Adult Education and CET? Or is this inevitable?

Question from Prof. Leesa Wheelahan's keynote #8

Regarding advocating identifying common concepts and practices in multiple vocational streams, could you suggest a framework, diven the diversity and myriad of disciplines?

Question from Prof. Leesa Wheelahan's keynote #7

Can you elaborate on 'national assessment' in your last slide? In your opinion, does decentralisation of assessment lead to inconsistency of quality and standards and affect the recognition of national competency based qualifications?

Question from Prof. Leesa Wheelahan's keynote #6

Is it possible to share some examples of how VET providers are working with the industry to bridge the gap between education and work?

Question from Prof. Leesa Wheelahan's keynote #5

Please share one strategy on how an AET provider could work with industry in designing an effective training program. Please use an electrician example.

Question from Prof. Leesa Wheelahan's keynote #4

How can universities stay relevant and continue to be the leading drivers of creating talent to meet the labour crunch, especially for the emergence of new industries e.g. social media?

Question from Prof. Leesa Wheelahan's keynote #3

Any educational approach that ignores or limits the organic, holistic and dynamic way in which people learn and apply knowledge and skills will eventually skip into absurdity. What are your thoughts?

Question from Prof. Leesa Wheelahan's keynote #2

Other than the trades where CBT are relevant & highly regarded, is there a solution, probably hybrid of coordinated & liberal market economies, that a country like Australia or Singapore can adopt to be successful in gaining greater recognition for VET?

Question from Prof. Leesa Wheelahan's keynote #1

Is it possible that the universities do not have a working mechanism to link with commerce and industry with the view of getting more pragmatic solutions rather than teaching theoretical models?

Question from Prof. Diana Laurillard’s keynote session #18

Is there a manner to measure the effectiveness of using ICT in classrooms compared to conventional manner of learning?

Question from Prof. Diana Laurillard’s keynote session #17

With SDL, we can assume that learners are motivated and have the thirst for knowledge. How do you promote SDL behaviour for the workforce - how to motivate learners? 

Question from Prof. Diana Laurillard’s keynote session #16

  If the target students are part time students/ working adults, is blended learning the solution for this group of students especially amongst their busy schedule?

Question from Prof. Diana Laurillard’s keynote session #15

Given the collaborative model, reiterative learning is important. This means a need for “time” to learn. Where then do short courses stand in the move towards blended learning?

Question from Prof. Diana Laurillard’s keynote session #15

Given the collaborative model, reiterative learning is important. This means a need for “time” to learn. Where then do short courses stand in the move towards blended learning

Question from Prof. Diana Laurillard’s keynote session #14

Having technologies not designed originally for T&L, the impact is the learning is not effective. We educators are then struggling to toggle with teaching and learning these new technologies at the same time. The challenge is how to manage them well without having to subject our learners to lower quality learning?

Question from Prof. Diana Laurillard’s keynote session #13

The complexity of making learning happen successfully involves three dimensions of planning - 1. Frontline: Learning content and instruction. 2. Middleware: Learning designer for pedagogy, and 3. Backend: Learning management support system.  Question: How can teachers / educators be primed to tackle these three layers of complexities to comprehend, consider and construct meaningful learning experiences for their learners?

Question from Prof. Diana Laurillard’s keynote session #12

 Is it timely to develop teachers on critical and creative thinking skills and dispositions to verify and manage the influx of the kinds of content in social media?

Question from Prof. Diana Laurillard’s keynote session #11

How do we measure the effectiveness of online learning to promote 21^st century skills in our students? Any tools?

Question from Prof. Diana Laurillard’s keynote session #10

How can adult educators tap on social media in the area of courseware development and further improve learning quality?

Question from Prof. Diana Laurillard’s keynote session #9

How is the product of the teaching model assessed? Is this fed into the model? Can we look at each model as guidelines to a particular group and context?

Question from Prof. Diana Laurillard’s keynote session #8

South Korea went very quickly, comprehensively and massively into e-learning. Recently they made a u-turn and have opted for more traditional pedagogical approaches. Can you comment?

Question from Prof. Diana Laurillard’s keynote session #7

Is The Learning Designer an open platform for the teaching community?

Question from Prof. Diana Laurillard’s keynote session #6

 Is there a clear difference between collaborative learning and cooperative learning?

Question from Prof. Diana Laurillard’s keynote session #5

Today’s adult trainers take pride in what and how they can deliver. However there’s a tendency to safeguard their materials and delivery modes and this is where collaborative learning is challenged, we think. How do you think this can be tackled?

Question from Prof. Diana Laurillard’s keynote session #4

Using technology indeed would be meaningful and effective in today’s learning and assessment context. However the challenge is how we could shift the mindset of those who are designing the systems for learning and assessment, to move away from paper-based assessments for collecting evidence towards on-line assessment for the same purpose.

Question from Prof. Diana Laurillard’s keynote session #3

 Not infrequently teachers spend too much time on the processes (designing, preparing) then the learning & content. Already teachers are fighting for time to teach and educate. What’s your advice to balance these requirements? What matters most?

Question from Prof. Diana Laurillard’s keynote session #2

While we are apprised that we should look at e-learning and other forms or innovative ways of training so that we can not only encourage adults to learn from the comfort of their homes or anyplace, how would this change the assessment systems in the future for WDA programs? Should we not change the current way of assessing our learners?

Question from Prof. Diana Laurillard’s keynote session #1

In the graph, summative assessment will decrease for the 21^st century learner. How does this gel with the need to evaluate programmes for accountability purposes?

Question from Mr Peter Schwartz’s keynote session #9

How can companies re-invent themselves to ride through the waves of uncertainties happening around the world, especially in the area of human resources?

Question from Mr Peter Schwartz’s keynote session #8

Steven makes a great point about pedagogy and the way we teach our students. How do we empower our learners to learn?

Question from Mr Peter Schwartz’s keynote session #7

 Are we perpetuating the digital divide further in future? The 3 pursuits of technology, knowledge and 100 year Starship appeal only to the rich and affluent. How many of us can afford an economy class ticket on the Starship?

Question from Mr Peter Schwartz’s keynote session #6

 What is the impact on the local workforce with impending 2015 Asean economic community integration?

Question from Mr Peter Schwartz’s keynote session #5

Peter spoke a fair bit on environment. Will this be an important part in education? How about adult learning in an era where all things are interconnected, and more often than not, linked to environment?

Question from Mr Peter Schwartz’s keynote session #4

Based on what has been shared, would it be a sad world for individuals who have missed out on childhood education. How do we bring these individuals to a point of being PI shaped individual?

Question from Mr Peter Schwartz’s keynote session #3

In light of Peter’s discussion, is there an urgent need to re-frame what competence means?

Question from Mr Peter Schwartz’s keynote session #2

 Knowing the uncertainties for the future, what are the challenges that our future generations would face? Is focusing training more on skills such as communication, information literacy skills more important than traditional knowledge itself?

Question from Mr Peter Schwartz’s keynote session #1

As a small nation, is Singapore consigned to being just a feeder nation to the BRIC countries? How can small nations play a leadership role in Lifelong Learning?

Using scenarios to explore possible futures for CET in Singapore

The Adult Learning in the Digital Age programme aims to develop technology that will support people working in continuing education and training (CET) over the next ten years. But for that to succeed, we need to know what sort of context we will be working in. What will be important? What will be different? How will professional practice have to change? Developing technologies that make a genuine contribution to adult learning will depend on finding answers to these questions.

CET is a large and complex domain, with many different factors interacting with each other on different levels - policy direction, classroom practice, economic conditions, workplace trends, individual motivations and so on. Its complexity makes its future direction uncertain. One technique that strategists and policy planners around the world use to understand uncertain and complex topics better is scenario planning. Scenarios are narratives of alternative future conditions in which the decisions made in the present might unfold. They're used for a variety of purposes in a number of different contexts, but in general they are used to re-examine assumptions that are held about the way things might turn out, to explore the different contexts in which people will be operating in years to come, and to ask "what if..?"

To help us imagine better the kinds of futures CET professionals might be operating in, we created four scenarios for CET in Singapore set ten years from now. A series of interviews and workshops with CET stakeholders, alongside a process of desk research, examined major drivers of change within the CET sector, paying attention to the impact they would have if they continued unchecked, and the degree to which the outcome of each is uncertain. The outcomes of this process were used as the basis of a development workshop to create four alternative future contexts for CET: iLearn, New Old, Bo Pian and Maelstrom.

iLearn describes a world in which adult learning is provided by the free market, and learners make their own way through a diverse range of offerings. New Old imagines the kind of comprehensive and personalised learning that could be available through a state-run CET service. In Maelstrom, learners, employers and governments alike are all doing their best to respond to change in a disconnected and incoherent world. And in Bo Pian, learners use their own time to become qualified in sector-wide mandatory certificates. Each of these worlds presents learners, educators and learning providers with particular challenges and opportunities. Each of them feature mobile and networked technologies in a pervasive social context. And each of them draw on features of the present and trends currently shaping the adult learning experience today.

These scenarios on their own don't tell us what the specific experiences of CET professionals might be. For that, we need the contribution and insight of people currently working in the sector. What would it be like to be a practitioner in the world of iLearn? How would you manage a CET centre in New Old? What changes would Maelstrom require in the role of curriculum developer? What would the experience be for learners in Bo Pian? Over the next few weeks we're looking for opportunities to connect with the CET community and learn more about what the impacts of each scenario would be on professional lives, in order to build an awareness of the issues the ALDA programme will need to address.

One opportunity to collaborate with us in this process is our ALS workshop on the afternoon of Friday 6th July (concurrent session 4B, 14:20 - 15:00. If you're interested in the way current trends might play out, or in exploring the ways in which change might impact on your professional identity, the workshop will provide a chance to discuss these with other members of the CET community. Whatever your connection to CET in Singapore, your perspective on the future challenges that adult learning will face over the next ten years would be hugely valuable, and make a real contribution to the ALDA programme.

More information on the programme and its aims can be found at http://adulteducation.sg/alda/. Hope to see you at the workshop!

Don’t Tell Me Anecdotes, Show Me the Data!

To Professor Alan Felstead, anecdotes are amusing at best, or worse, misleading and even dangerous. The academic ‘big science’ approach is more forensic, sober and considered, and hence more reliable.  This doesn’t mean it’s boring.  Quite the contrary, the findings which emerge are based on large samples of data which when pieced together, like a jigsaw, reveal the big picture.  This takes time, but the results are more robust.

Alan will be talking about some of these results at the ALS 2012 conference:

1.     Policy in any organisation must be based on good, scientific evidence and not hunches based, at best, on anecdotes. 
Organisations should use tried and test survey questions in their own staff surveys rather than reinvent the wheel.  After all, academics have often spent many years pouring over the nuances in questions, constructing sets ofquestions which tap different aspects of the same phenomenon, crunching the resulting data, and making links between this and that phenomenon. Why not engage with them?

2.     The most effective learning is closer than you think. 
While governments across the world are fixated by qualifications and courses, the most effective workplace learning happens on-the-job.  Watching others at work, being showed what to do or simply doing the job are the best ways of increasing worker performance. These activities are rated more helpful than attending training courses or acquiring qualifications. 

3.     But not all jobs require much learning at all. 
When surveys ask those who say they learn next to nothing at work how this affects their work performance, the resounding answer is that it makes little difference.  This is not because their employers refuse to provide learning opportunities, but because their jobs do not require them.  This applies particularly to jobs lower down the pecking order.  The policy implication of this finding is that the delivery of formal training and the provision of learning opportunities has to be understood in the wider context of production. 

4.     While it is true that work is increasingly organised in teams, not all teams are the same. 
For some, the word team is little more than a label which refers to a group of workers.  However, in other cases, it means much  more.  In these cases teams self-direct themselves.  They decide what effort to put in, what tasks to do, the methods of carrying them out and the quality standards expected.  However, despite much talk about the importance of teamworking for business performance, the British data suggests that while the prevalence of teams in general has risen, the proportion of self-directed teams has actually fallen.  Is the same true in Singapore and in other parts of Asia – what types of teams do these economies now have? 

5.     Knowing who’s committed to the cause. 
Singapore, like Britain, has an ageing population.  One policy solutionis to keep older workers in work for longer. This makes business sense when older workers often have tacit skills which are difficult to replace and are reckoned to be the most committed members of the workforce.  However,survey evidence in Britain suggests that this is no longer true.  Organisational commitment among older workershas decided sharply over the last ten years and is now little different fromother age groups.  Businesses need to know more about why older workers have become so disillusioned and what can be done to recapture their commitment. 

The best answers to questions facing organisations in the changing world of work and learning come from solid evidence.The systematic collection of such data is best placed to provide these big picture insights.  So, don’t tell anecdotes, show the data – that’s Alan’s big takeaway message to delegates of the ALS Conference.

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